_dist”, comprising utilization of at least one probability of selection;

X3) selecting a data value from the distribution selected in step X2); and

wherein the probability of failure of the monitored device is determined from a statistical simulation technique starting from the value selected in X1 and using consecutive values selected in a plurality of steps X3).

According to an example, the statistical simulation technique is a Monte Carlo method involving the simulation of a large number of possible future paths.

According to an example, in step X2) a probability of selecting the fleet distribution “F_dist” is calculated on the basis of the effective number of data measurements divided by the sum of the effective number of data measurements and the number of monitor device data measurements “N_eff/(N_eff+N_data)”, and wherein in step A2) a probability of selecting the device distribution “D_dist” is calculated on the basis of the number of monitor device data measurements divided by the sum of the effective number of data measurements and the number of monitor device data measurements “N_data/(N_eff+N_data)”.

According to an example, step X3) comprises randomly selecting the data value from the distribution selected in step X2).